Thursday, April 02, 2015

A Long Dry Summer (With Updates)

Every April 1, California state water scientists measure the snow pack near Echo Summit in the Sierra Nevada mountains. It's considered the end of the wet season, when the accumulated snowpack should be greatest--or at least as big as it is going to get until next winter.  As the snow in these mountains melt, the runoff supplies water for the dry months of summer.  This accounts for about 30% of the state's water supply.

For the first time since these measurements began in 1950, the Governor of California was present.  He was there because everyone could see the brown meadows which normally would be covered with snow.  But the measurements were even worse than expected.

In the photo above, the water official is explaining that the black tape indicates the snow level in 1977, the historic low until now.  The yellow tape measures where it was last April 1, almost as low.  The green or blue tape near his right hand is the average.  The pole beyond the photo's height shows the deepest snow recorded.

 On this April 1, the snow measured 5% of normal, the lowest figure since the measurements began.  Officially it's one to two inches.  Last year it was 27 inches.

Governor Brown was there to announce the first mandatory water rationing in California and U.S. history.  Except for sumptuous lawn maintenance, it didn't affect ordinary home water use directly, nor farmers nor many industrial uses.  Though the targets were still mostly low-hanging fruit (golf courses, watering of ornamental areas on public land etc.) the cutbacks did aim to reduce water use throughout the state by 25%.

The water situation differs regionally and geographically in this huge state.  Here in Humboldt, our reservoir is full, and that's the case in some other places, especially here in the north.  But even places with adequate water now face insecure situations in the summer.  The latest long-range weather forecasts show some changes coming, including perhaps a stronger El Nino.  But even so, California is unlikely to see much rain before fall.

What the governor's order will mean depends in part on implementations in individual municipalities.  But clearly at this point--with hotter average temps due to the climate crisis deepening our drought--we're in unknown territory.  The chains of change will reveal themselves, probably with many surprises.

We think naturally of drinking water first, and water that we depend on for urban civilized life.  Water for California agriculture, which is a national as well as local economic issue.  Water for various forms of mining and manufacture.  Water in the ecosystem: already it's feared that lack of water, and warmer water, may severely deplete salmon and other fish.

Brown added a coda to his announcement that put this all in perspective.  He noted that California has been inhabited by humans for ten or even twenty thousand years. "But the number of those people were never more than three or four hundred thousand, as far as we know."  They could adapt to drought, or move away from it.

 "Now we are embarked on an experiment that no one have ever tried, ever, in the history of mankind.  And that is 38 million people with 32 million vehicles, living at the level of comfort that we all strive to attain."

Updates 4/2: Another summary of new restrictions and previous cutbacks.  Probably the best summary remains the New York Times lead story.  The Times adds several stories today, including one focusing on home water use--the standard is 55 gallons per person but in LA actual use is closer to 70, with some places as high as 100.

 A view on pricing water higher, especially for large volume users.  The Washington Post explains and illustrates the assertion that the California drought is "a likely consequence of climate change, specifically the rising temperatures which are intensifying many of the processes causing the state to lose water at an alarming rate."  There are several stories around the web about this.

The Washington Post also focused on the growing crisis in California groundwater, being depleted at a rapid rate and at historic lows.

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