Saturday, March 15, 2008

"No Shock Barack. No Drama Obama.”

It's been a dizzying week in the U.S. political campaign. I've been monitoring the ins and outs at American Dash, but the charges and countercharges, a party seemingly tearing itself apart over race and identity politics--it's all been superheated.

Except for one of the people in the eye of the storm: Barack Obama. Still cool, calm, cogent. Forceful in making his points, but rational and even-handed.

These qualities, obvious in the latest rounds of controversy over his former minister and a big contributor to past campaigns, were noted by a number of military leaders early in the week as they assessed and endorsed Obama for Commander in Chief.

General McPeak said the steady temperament that Mr. Obama has demonstrated during the campaign would serve him well as commander in chief... Said General Merrill McPeak (whose had his own problems with getting too excited in his campaign statements) “Senator Obama was up in Iowa, maybe not so up in New Hampshire, but he was the same Barack Obama “Steady, reliable, ‘No shock, Barack. No drama Obama.”

They spoke about his judgment. And while others--including a counsel in the Clinton White House--question Hillary's claims to experience, Keith Olbermann provided some historical perspective: FDR had served only six years as governor and state senator before he became President. Teddy Roosevelt had four and a half years of "experience" before the White House. Woodrow Wilson had two years and six weeks.

While on the other hand, before they became president Richard Nixon had 14 years in Washington, and Calvin Coolidge 25.

And while the pundits shout and people like me are half crazed with all the possible impacts of this thing and that, Obama is quietly moving closer to the nomination. His victories in Wyoming and Mississippi have more than made up delegates he lost on March 4, he's added 100,000 to his popular vote lead, and since Super Tuesday he has been endorsed by 47 super-delegates, while Hillary has lost a net of 7. Update: Saturday Obama picked up at least 7 delegates in Iowa, formerly for John Edwards. Second update: Obama picked up 9, Clinton lost 1--a net Obama gain of 10.

Even if Hillary wins PA by 15%, she can't catch Obama in delegates--in the contests to come, including PA, she has to average more than 64% of the delegates (meaning getting like 70% of the vote) while Obama only has to get about 45%. And on Friday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said that if super-delegates "overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic Party." A very polite shot across the bow of the Hillary campaign.

But Obama is winning super-delegates anyway. He's doing especially well with elected officials. Hillary is desperately trying to insist that only the big states she wins should count, while super-delegates in other states--many of whom hold office, and would like to keep doing so--are seeing that Obama is committed to campaigning and strengthening the party everywhere, and that he wants a big congressional majority. Some studying the subject think he has the best chance to deliver it. Moreover, it's becoming noticed that Hillary has won almost exclusively in states where she was backed by the existing political machinery of the party. That machinery will function for any Democrat, so that's not much of an argument for Hillary's electability.

After Hillary's post-Ohio bounce, Obama has returned to leading in the national polls--he's led now for seven straight days and has broken the 50% barrier on Friday, leading by 6 points. He continues to be the more likely to beat McCain in November, and Democrats continue to consider him the more electable.

Obama has been inspirational with what he says and how he says it. But his cool inspires confidence, too. I've said it before, but it bears repeating because it's so important. Somebody like Barack Obama doesn't come along very often in political life. We are so lucky at this critical time to be able to elect him President.

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