The Next President

Since the last time the '08 election was mentioned here, a lot has happened. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson have announced their interest or candidacy, as have several Republicans, while John Kerry announced he won't run.

On the Republican side, the prohibitive frontrunner John McCain has been slipping nationally, due to his odd support for more war in Iraq, and is said to be tanking in the New Hampshire primary, for the same reason. Rudi Guliani leads most national polls now, though there are doubts that Republican primary voters will smile upon some of his positions or personal history. But some political types feel that if he could get through the primaries--and he would be helped if primaries in bigger states are moved to be held earlier in the process--he would be formidable in the general election.

The Democratic field is considered to be stronger as a whole, and historic: the two leading contenders are a woman and a non-white man. If you consider Richardson the fourth contender (after John Edwards), then there's a Latino as well. Hillary Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite, with name recognition and money, and an emerging strategy of galvanizing the female vote. Barack Obama started strong, but is still far behind at this point. John Edwards is still very strong in Iowa but runs third in national polls.

I hope we get good debates among candidates when there is still a viable race, though the media would like to pick a candidate long before then, and others apparently would like that as well. Front-loading the primaries with big states, especially California, may do that, but even before then, there is the apparently necessary but very unseemly struggle for money. I don't mind that candidates have to get money, but if the stories are true, they also try to deny other candidates from receiving money from their big donors, and that's pretty seamy.

Right now the attention is on Hillary, and she's getting a pretty even-handed press. How she will deal with the negatives that have followed her, and the role of Bill Clinton, probably even more popular today than when he left office, will determine a lot.

What prompts these campaign observations now is the sudden move by Senator Barack Obama to take leadership in the matter of Iraq. He is introducing binding legislation that spells out the procedure and conditions for troop withdrawal from Iraq beginning in May and ending in March 2008.

While the Senate and the Democratic party in general is going at this with deliberate speed, working on sense of the Congress resolutions, seeing how to peel away Republicans anxious not to be saddled with Iraq, Obama has leapfrogged ahead. While introducing a clear, definite plan is close to astonishing, it could be just the start of something. Obama's rhetoric has favored common sense solutions, bipartisanship in working together for all the people. If he can actually lead in Congress to get something like this bill passed, it would go a long way towards establishing his leadership abilities. His presidential star would definitely rise.